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Thursday, November 14, 2019 11:58 AM
By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS  — South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has joined former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at the top of the leaderboard in the third Monmouth University Poll of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses. Buttigieg’s gains since the summer have been across the board, with increasing support coming from nearly every demographic group.  Regardless, less than one-third of likely caucusgoers say that they are firmly set on their choice of candidate and most would not be too disappointed if they had to switch their support.  
  • Atomic! A Pence defection; Troye, Stern on Trump's disgust; Twisted Sister sounds off; Lucas parts with Holcomb
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. A Pence defection: Here are your final power lunch talking points for the week: Olivia Troye is a Republican, who got her first job working for the Republican National Committee and ended up as Vice President Mike Pence's lead staffer on the White House Coronavirus Task Force. She's not only voting for Joe Biden, she becomes the first COVID task force member to break ranks with President Trump, cutting a TV ad for Republican Voters Against Trump. “It was shocking to see the President saying that the virus was a hoax, saying that everything was OK when it was not,” Troye says in a video released Thursday. "What I’m really concerned about is if they rush this vaccine and pressure people and get something out because they want to save the election. At some points I would come home at night, I would look myself in the mirror and say, 'Are you really making a difference?' Because no matter how hard you work or what you do, the president is going to do something detrimental to keeping Americans safe.” The most damaging thing Troye says came when she described a task force meeting when the president expressed disdain for his own supporters, saying, “Maybe this COVID thing’s a good thing. I don’t like shaking hands with people. I don’t have to shake hands with these disgusting people.” Where have we heard this before? President Trump's buddy, shock jock Howard Stern, said in May, “The oddity in all of this is the people Trump despises most, love him the most. The people who are voting for Trump, for the most part … He wouldn’t even let them in a f*cking hotel. He’d be disgusted by them. Go to Mar-a-Lago, see if there’s any people who look like you. I’m talking to you in the audience.”

  • HPI Interview: Secretary Lawson sees 'no evidence' of fraud or 'rigged' election

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS – An edgy America has been warned by its president that the coming election will be “rigged” and “fraudulent.” U.S. intelligence and congressional sources say that nefarious foreign sources are seeking a redux of the 2016 interference. And there has been widespread media speculation that a winner in the presidential race may not be known for days, or even weeks after the Nov. 3 election. Indiana Secretary of State Connie Lawson tells Howey Politics Indiana  that she has confidence in the process, both in Indiana and nationally. She said in response to written questions from HPI that foreign actors have “scanned” the state’s election systems but likened it to a “burglar rattling doorknobs.” Lawson says there is “no evidence” of any widespread voting fraud and says that the state’s long-time absentee voting system remains “safe and secure.”

  • Horse Race: AG race eclipses INGov in funds
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS – Unlike every cycle in modern Indiana election history, the attorney general race is generating more late money flow than the race for governor. Since Democrat Jonathan Weinzapfel and Republican Todd Rokita secured their party attorney general nominations, about a half million dollars has been spilling into this race, with Rokita holding about a 4-to-1 advantage. Democrats and unions appear to be investing in Weinzapfel as opposed to gubernatorial nominee Woody Myers. His campaign has not reported any supplemental donations since mid-July. While the campaign told Howey Politics Indiana it was spending on its digital campaign, the Indianapolis Business Journal reported that the Myers campaign has spent $750 on Facebook. Rokita received $405,000 from the Republican Attorney General Action Fund between July 13 and Aug. 27, when $250,000 was reported.
  • Atomic! Democracy goes Caputo; COVID updates; Braun rejects state relief
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. Caputo & democracy: Here are your Tuesday power lunch talking points: The next 48 hours will be a crucial sequence in the 2020 election cycle, if not in American democracy. Last April, the White House installed Michael Caputo as assistant secretary of Health & Human Services for public affairs. Talk around DC was that Caputo, who authored the book"The Ukraine Hoax," was sent in as a Trump loyalist to the sprawling HHS to keep a tight leash on HHS Sec. Alex Azar. On Sunday, Caputo posted a Facebook video (since removed) in which he accused CDC scientists of "sedition" while elements of that agency have become a "resistance unit" against President Trump. "You understand that they’re going to have to kill me, and unfortunately, I think that’s where this is going,” Caputo said in the video in which he describes long shadows growing on his ceiling. “And when Donald Trump refuses to stand down at the inauguration, the shooting will begin. The drills that you’ve seen are nothing. If you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it’s going to be hard to get.”  To put this in context: If the head of Indiana's FSSA under Gov. Mitch Daniels had posted such a video, I can guarantee you that a deputy chief of staff named Eric Holcomb would have been at his/her door seeking a resignation by EOB. HHS put out this statement on Monday: “Mr. Caputo is a critical, integral part of the president’s coronavirus response, leading on public messaging as Americans need public health information to defeat the Covid-19 pandemic.” If Caputo is still employed at HHS on Wednesday, all bets are off on the 2020 election and the revered peaceful transition of power.
  • Atomic! Maskless MAGA; Big Ten grid vote today; Pfizer CEO predicts vaccine in 2020
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. Do as I say: Here are your Monday power lunch talking points: President Trump told author Bob Woodward, “I wanted to always play [the coronavirus] down. I still like playing it down because I don't want to create a panic.” On Sunday night, President Trump held an indoor MAGA rally in Nevada, a state that has prohibited public gatherings over over 50 people. "Tell your governor to open up your state," Trump told the mostly maskless crowd. Democratic Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak called the rally as “reckless” and “selfish," adding, “The president appears to have forgotten that this country is still in the middle of a global pandemic." And the public's opinion of such flagrant disregard for public health? An ABC News/Ipsos  poll found 65% disapprove of the president’s management of the COVID-19 crisis.

  • Atomic! Down playing COVID; A shock(ingly bad) poll; Our 'apolitical' supt
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis 

    1. Trump/Pence on down playing pandemic: Here are your final power lunch talking points for the week: That Feb. 7 phone conversation between President Trump and author Bob Woodward suggests what the journalist calls a “coverup.” In that call, Trump acknowledged, “You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed, and so that’s a very tricky one. That’s a very delicate one. It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flu. This is deadly stuff.” On March 19, Trump told Woodward he was understating the threat on purpose. “I wanted to always play it down,” he said, adding, “I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.” On Feb. 26, Trump told the public, "But when I mentioned the flu, I said — actually, I asked the various doctors. I said, ‘Is this just like flu?’ Because people die from the flu. And this is very unusual. And it is a little bit different, but in some ways it’s easier and in some ways it’s a little bit tougher.” On Thursday, Trump held a rally in Freeland, Mich., where there was virtually no social distancing and few wore masks. Vice President Mike Pence in Harrisburg on Thursday: “President Trump never downplayed the coronavirus to any of us. He never downplayed the coronavirus to any of us he tasked with marshaling a national response.”
  • HPI Analysis: Uncertainty: The pandemic after six months
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS – As we headed out to Richmond a couple of summers ago, I suggested to Gov. Eric Holcomb that the opioid/heroin epidemic would probably become the “story of our lifetime.” Little did anyone know that just over the horizon as 2019 rolled into 2020 how wrong that assertion would prove to be. While heroin overdose deaths are still occurring at a brisk clip around the state – the Wall Street Journal listed Indiana as one of a half dozen states still grappling with a significant rise in that addiction – what is clear now is the COVID-19 pandemic has become the monster story, dwarfing all others. It will be a milepost that future governors, journalists (if there are any of us left) and historians will be pointing to a century from now. We are now at just the six-month marker of when the pandemic came to Indiana. At this writing, 101,485 Hoosiers have been documented as infected by the novel coronavirus, killing at least 3,173 of us.
  • Horse Race: Merritt opens up 2024 INGov race
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS – State Sen. Jim Merritt will leave the Indiana Senate in November, but he’s not retiring. “I don’t like the term ‘retiring,’” he told Howey Politics Indiana Tuesday morning. “I want to take some time, write a book or two and test the waters for ‘24. I still have a lot of juice in the tank.”  Specifically, his reference to 2024 was a potentially open gubernatorial seat, assuming Gov. Eric Holcomb wins in November. Merritt lost the 2019 Indianapolis mayoral race to Democrat Joe Hogsett. “It was difficult running for mayor from the Senate,” he said. “I want to volunteer at food banks and not have it look like it’s a political stunt.”
  • Atomic: Trump up 8% in Indiana; Lashes out at generals; Merritt eyes 2024
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. Trump up by 8% in Indiana: President Trump held an 8% lead in Indiana in a CBS/YouGov Tracking poll. Trump had a 53-45% lead over Democrat Joe Biden. The MOE was 6%. But that was taken before Jeffrey Goldberg's bombshell report in The Atlantic  late last week quoting high ranking White House insiders who said President Trump called U.S. military war dead "losers" and those who fought in Vietnam "suckers." Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin cited two unnamed former senior administration officials who she said confirmed many key aspects of The Atlantic story about Trump’s cancellation of a trip to Aisne-Marne American Cemetery while visiting Paris in 2018. She told Fox News' Neil Cavuto, "My sources include two senior former Trump administration officials who were on the trip to France where these remarks allegedly were made. They confirmed key parts of The Atlantic  article and certainly described a pattern of behavior by the president in describing war veterans and wounded warriors that coincides with the description in The Atlantic  article." She also confirmed the "suckers" comment. “According to one former senior Trump administration official: ‘When the President spoke about the Vietnam War, he said, ‘It was a stupid war. Anyone who went was a sucker,’” she wrote. 

  • Atomic: COVID & Big 10; Report says Trump called fallen soldiers 'losers'; $51M broadband expansion
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Michigan City

    1. COVID and the Big 10: Here are your final power lunch talking points as we head into Labor Day. Purdue President Mitch Daniels addressed postponing the Big 10 football season earlier this week, saying, "The Big Ten’s decision was a collective one, after the commissioner and several presidents received very strong advice from team doctors and other medical experts that the unique health risks to athletes, especially in collision sports, as well as the risk for coaches and support staff, were too uncertain to proceed in good conscience." On Thursday, the Centre Daily Times  quoted Wayne Sebastianelli — Penn State’s director of athletic medicine — about the link between COVID-19 and myocarditis, particularly in Big Ten athletes. Sebastianelli said that cardiac MRI scans revealed that approximately a third of Big Ten athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 appeared to have myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle that can be fatal if left unchecked. “When we looked at our COVID-positive athletes, whether they were symptomatic or not, 30 to roughly 35 percent of their heart muscles (were) inflamed,” Sebastianelli said. Penn State later clarified, saying that the figure is around 15%. As we head into Labor Day, Dr. Anthony Fauci put Indiana and Illinois on his "risk surge list." Gov. Eric Holcomb and Health Commissioner Kristina Box urged Hoosiers to be diligent in wearing masks and social distancing. IU recommended that all Greek houses close due to the pandemic, Indiana State University suspended Greek activities. The Indiana University School of Medicine will be one of 81 sites in the U.S. to test a COVID vaccine developed by British drugmaker AstraZeneca in partnership with Oxford University. And a maskless President Trump mocked challenger Joe Biden for wearing a mask.
  • HPI Analysis: Trump-Biden race enters into decisive narrative stage
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS – To win this fall’s election, President Trump will want you to feel unsafe from urban strife. Think of downtown Indianapolis last spring at the apex of the George Floyd protests that killed one person and shattered dozens of massive glass panes. For Democrat Joe Biden to win the presidency, he must convince enough voters in key states that COVID-19 and the corresponding economic collapse present a far greater danger. While many observers believed the die was cast in May and June as the United States struggled with the pandemic and economic fallout, this campaign’s vital contours are being shaped as we speak as Trump and Biden seek to steer these differing narratives. How this race evolves (or de-evolves) over the next two weeks will have profound implications for the next decade. And just after this sequence, early voting begins, much of it by mail.

  • Horse Race: Myers struggling in pandemic altered INGov race
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS – On Monday night, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Woody Myers hosted a virtual fundraiser featuring former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg and Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett. Campaign spokeswoman Lindsay Shipps Haake told Howey Politics Indiana that it was “very successful,” as was the biographical video the campaign posted digitally in late August, which was also designed to gin up support and fundraising. Myers campaign manager Zakiya Thomas put the fundraising push in perspective for the campaign that trailed Gov. Eric Holcomb by about $8 million on June 30. “On Tuesday, September 1st, I have a meeting with Dr. Myers and our campaign team about our budget from now until Election Day. That budget will depend on how much money we have in the bank before midnight of August 31st. You might be tempted to wait a bit before donating to see what happens in the campaign, but in reality, giving now is what makes the difference between winning in November, and falling short. If you give today, we can fully fund the campaign programs we need to win – like TV and digital ads to make sure every voter knows Dr. Myers and how he will move Indiana forward.”
  • Horse Race: Sens. Ruckelshaus, Sandlin begin TV ads
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - The reelection campaign of State Sen. John Ruckelshaus began TV cable advertising on Tuesday. It is one of the earliest TV ad campaigns by the Senate Majority Caucus. The $30,000 buy is for cable television. Ruckelshaus is facing Democrat Fady Qaddoura. The script: “In today’s divisive politics one leader stands out as a voice of reason. John Ruckelshaus is a bipartisan problem-solver, who helped write new laws that guaranteed coverage for pre-existing conditions and ensured victims of sexual assault get the medical and legal support they deserve with courtesy and respect. John Ruckelshaus works with both parties to find common ground to do what’s right for us. John Ruckelshaus: A trusted voice of reason.” Horse Race Status: Tossup.
  • Atomic! Trump to Kenosha; Swing state polls; Empty USPS trucks; Sox-Cubs World Series?
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. Trump heads to Kenosha: Here are your Tuesday power lunch talking points: All eyes are on Kenosha, Wis., today as the American bull (President Trump) enters the China shop. Trump said Monday his trip "could increase love and respect for our country." Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden made it clear in a speech in Pittsburgh that the violence was coming on Trump's watch. "Fires are burning and we have a president who fans the flames rather than fighting the flames," Biden said. "The incumbent president is incapable of telling us the truth, incapable of facing the facts and incapable of healing." As for seeking to tamp down tensions, Biden said, "Violence will not bring change, only destruction. It's wrong in every way. It divides instead of unites.” When Fox News' Laura Ingraham asked about the 17-year-old vigilante Kyle Rittenhouse who is facing two homicide charges in Kenosha, Trump declined to denounce violence. “That was an interesting situation you saw the same tape as I saw, and he was trying to get away from them. I guess it looks like and he fell, and then they very violently attacked him... He probably would have been killed but it's under, it's under investigation.”

  • Atomic! NFIB warning; Trump heading to Kenosha; Mearns warns BSU; charges dropped against ex-mayor

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. Hoosier businesses teeter: 
    Here are your Monday power lunch talking points: While President Trump is raising the specter of violence in the cities as an election homestretch ploy, the National Federation of Independent Businesses is sounding new alarms about the economy. About one-in-five (21%) of Indiana small business owners report they will have to close their doors if current economic conditions do not improve over the next six months. Another 19% of owners anticipate they will be able to operate no longer than 7-12 months under current economic conditions. “The unprecedented and devastating crisis isn’t going away. Many small businesses here in Indiana are still suffering,” said NFIB State Director in Indiana, Barbara Quandt. “While some small business have been able to get back to work, there are other industries still stuck at a standstill and likely will for months to come. For every small family business that is coming back to life, there’s one that is circling the drain. We need to help those small business owners and we need to do it now. Many can’t hold on much longer. They need money to keep their doors open and support their employees and their families.”

  • Atomic! Trump's acceptance speech; Biden prebuttal; It's the economy . . . .
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. Trump' acceptance speech: Here are your final power lunch talking points of the week: President Trump accepted his second Republican presidential nomination on the White House South Lawn last night in a 70-minute drain-winder he read off the Teleprompter. He laid out what's at stake: "This election will decide whether we save the American Dream, or whether we allow a socialist agenda to demolish our cherished destiny. It will decide whether we rapidly create millions of high paying jobs, or whether we crush our industries and send millions of these jobs overseas, as has foolishly been done for many decades. Your vote will decide whether we protect law abiding Americans, or whether we give free reign to violent anarchists, agitators, and criminals who threaten our citizens. And this election will decide whether we will defend the American Way of Life, or whether we allow a radical movement to completely dismantle and destroy it. "At the Democrat National Convention," Trump continued, "Joe Biden and his party repeatedly assailed America as a land of racial, economic, and social injustice. So tonight, I ask you a very simple question: How can the Democrat Party ask to lead our country when it spends so much time tearing down our country? In the left’s backward view, they do not see America as the most free, just, and exceptional nation on earth. Instead, they see a wicked nation that must be punished for its sins." Trump conveyed a couple of whoppers: “We will always, and very strongly, protect patients with pre-existing conditions, and that is a pledge from the entire Republican Party.” But the White House is backing a lawsuit that would end such protections, and the GOP neglected to create a platform for the first time in its history. Apparently the platform is ... whatever Trump says. Trump: “The United States has among the lowest case fatality rates of any major country in the world.” On Friday, the pandemic death toll stood 181,592 since March, an increase of 908 over Wednesday. It's the worst in the world.
  • HPI Interview: McIntosh seeks to defend 5th CD for Republicans
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    CARMEL – Absent a national wave, the only competitive statewide federal race in Indiana is the open 5th CD, with Democrat Christina Hale and Republican State Sen. Victoria Spartz poised for a showdown likely to extend to Election Day. David McIntosh knows the 5th CD. When he ran for governor in 2000 it was a conservative GOP bastion. When he sought the 5th CD Republican nomination in 2012, he was edged out by U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks. Now the Club For Growth president is poised as a potential queenmaker. It was the Club’s decision to back Spartz in the crowded, 15-candidate Republican primary that proved to be the crucial factor in her winning the nomination with 40% of the vote in the June 2 primary. When Hale launched a bio TV ad in early August, it was the Club For Growth that responded with a $215,000 two-week TV ad buy designed to prevent Hale from forging a big early lead.

  • HPI moves 5th CD into 'tossup'; Spartz begins TV ad
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    CARMEL – With Club For Growth and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now in a full opt-in for this open 5th CD race, the HPI Horse Race is moving this showdown between Democrat Christina Hale and Republican Victoria Spartz into “tossup.” Hale began her second round of general election TV advertising on Wednesday centered on the issue of health care. The Club For Growth responded to her first spate of advertising with the first attack ad of the cycle. This morning, the Spartz campaign released its first general election TV ad titled "Bold Thinking." Campaign manager Catherine Seat said, "This commercial highlights the proven leadership and tested experience that will make Victoria Spartz the leader Hoosiers in the 5th District will be proud of." The Club has put in $215,000 in its first fall expenditure on behalf of Spartz while the DCCC has made a $400,000 Indianapolis DMA buy this past week. There have also been dueling polls, with the DCCC dropping a poll on Aug. 20 showing Hale with a 50-45% lead following a Club poll a week earlier showing Spartz up 47-40%. So this showdown has all the markings of a tossup race.
  • Pence uses RNC acceptance speech to stress law & order
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS –  As Vice President Pence prepared to take the stage at Fort McHenry for his Republican National Convention acceptance speech Wednesday night, America was in turmoil. The Democratic governors of Wisconsin and Minnesota had called out their national guards to quell violence after police shootings, the latest this week in Kenosha. The NBA had cancelled its playoff schedule as players protested. Category 4 Hurricane Laura was taking aim at the Louisiana-Texas border. And the United States was closing in on its 180,000 death toll from COVID-19, including 56 in Pence’s home county of Bartholomew. Pence struck a law and order theme that is expected to be the hallmark of President Trump’s reelection bid this fall. “Joe Biden said America is systemically racist,” Pence said. “You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America. Under President Trump … we’re not going to defund the police, not now, not ever. We will have law and order on the streets of this country.”

  • Atomic! RNC's Trump Show; Pences on the bill; Sato abruptly wins Indy500
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. U.S. survival at stake: Here are your Monday power lunch talking points: President Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller said on NBC's Meet The Press  Sunday that tonight's virtual Republican National Convention would be an “optimistic and upbeat” confab. “We're going to talk about the American story, about all the accomplishments that we've had over the last four years with President Trump and what the president's second-term vision is going to look like,” Miller said. But the under tones promise to be dark, as was President Trump's "American carnage" inaugural address. In Joe Biden's hometown of Scranton last Thursday, Trump said, “At stake in this election is the survival of our nation. It’s true, because we’re dealing with crazy people on the other side. They’ve gone totally, stone-cold crazy. If you want a vision of your life under a Biden presidency, think of the smoldering ruins in Minneapolis, the violent anarchy of Portland, the bloodstained sidewalks of Chicago, and imagine the mayhem coming to your town and every single town in America.” It reinforced what former President Obama told Democrats last week: “I want to talk as plainly as I can about the stakes in this election. That’s what at stake right now: Our democracy.”

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  • Coats calls for bipartisan election oversight commission
    "The most urgent task American leaders face is to ensure that the election’s results are accepted as legitimate. Electoral legitimacy is the essential linchpin of our entire political culture. We should see the challenge clearly in advance and take immediate action to respond. The most important part of an effective response is to finally, at long last, forge a genuinely bipartisan effort to save our democracy, rejecting the vicious partisanship that has disabled and destabilized government for too long. If we cannot find common ground now, on this core issue at the very heart of our endangered system, we never will. Our key goal should be reassurance. We must firmly, unambiguously reassure all Americans that their vote will be counted, that it will matter, that the people’s will expressed through their votes will not be questioned and will be respected and accepted. I propose that Congress creates a new mechanism to help accomplish this purpose. It should create a supremely high-level bipartisan and nonpartisan commission to oversee the election." - Former national intelligence director and Indiana senator Dan Coats, in a New York Times op-ed published Thursday morning. 
     
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  • Woodward on why Coats didn't speak out on Trump
    Bob Woodward, the author of the new book “Rage” discussed the way in which President Trump diminished former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and former DNI Dan Coats and why he thinks Mattis and Coats have not publicly spoken about the president. “It’s almost a book in itself,” Woodward said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Wednesday. “This was a man who was a senator from Indiana. He was retiring and he was offered this job from Mike Pence, and felt he could not say no. He went in with these Republican values and was stunned, shocked and, in a way, just ground down from Trump’s refusal to accept reality.” Woodward said that at one point Mattis and Coats talked after a National Security Council meeting. “Mattis says that Trump has no moral compass. And Coats says, ‘Donald Trump,’ their leader, ‘does not know the difference between a lie and the truth.’ They were in the latter phase of their lives. (Trump) pulled all of these stunts in a way that led them to the point where, in Coats’s case, his wife Marsha said to him, ‘Look, Dan, God put you in this job. You’re not just failing the country, yourself and your family, but God and you need to get organized.’ Trump expelled him when it did not serve Trump’s purposes.”  - Brian A. Howey, publisher
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