By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Nashville, Ind.

1. The death of political polling

Here are your final pre-election power lunch talking points: We may be looking at the demise of political polling as we’ve known it. We’ve already seen Gallup pull out of the head-to-head business. Other pollsters we’ve worked with no longer want to participate in the media circus. Today, CNN  had the Democrats leading the congressional generic by 12%, ABC/Washington Post  at 7%, NBC/Wall Street Journal  at 6%, Politico had it at 3%. Who do you believe?  NBC/WSJ  pollster Peter Hart: “It is a political kaleidoscope. You turn the poll one way, and it looks [good for Democrats]. You can see how the GOP squeaks through.” NBC’s  Chuck Todd also admitted he doesn’t believe in the polls.

FiveThirtyEight’s  Nate Silver was in complete equivocation mode. "So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week." But, he said, ”polls aren't always right. The range of outcomes in the House is really wide. Our range which covers 80% of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53. Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House. But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats  and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats. Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world." So polling confidence is out the window.

A couple of Rexisms  are in order here when it comes to President Trump’s sway in this state: 1.) “I don’t have to slam my hand in the car door twiceto learn that it hurts”; and (we’re paraphrasing here) 2.) “Being chairman of the party of the governor and one that doesn’t is the difference between shit and ice cream.” So in the Hoosier State, we cannot discount the impact of Trump/Pence, and the GOP has vastly more money. Braun ended up with a money lead over Donnelly. Democrats have put most of their money in Joe Donnelly. President Trump is back in Fort Wayne tonight for a final pitch. It’s designed to stoke up the base; it could motivate the Dem vote, but 2016 is fresh in our minds.

2. Final INSen forecast

So we can’t base our final INSen forecasts on polling. A lot of it is follow the money and gut. Nate Silver’sFiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Joe Donnelly a 70.8% chance of winning this morning, down from 80% last week, but up from 68% last week. But what kind of cred does he have, given his DUI-style dialogue on his own forecasting model this past weekend? He might as well quoted HPI (i.e. “Anything can happen.”) We view the Senate race as a tossup.  We’re watching heavy turnout in Indy, but also across red Indiana. Mike Braun was in a tossup race in the primary, and won going away, by 10%. If we had to put a money bet on it, Braun pulls it out, but we’re NOT making a money bet. Former congressman and HPI analyst Mark Souder: “I believe that Braun will narrowly win because Republicans have been steadily activated in Indiana. Sen. Donnelly has run a better campaign, and will run ahead of the congressional Democrats in seven of the nine districts as well as their statewide candidates and their state legislative candidates, who are struggling to win 1/3 of the respective bodies. Donnelly will win crossover votes but not enough. Not only did President Trump push Republicans together, but President Obama's appearance - trying to boost turnout in Democrat areas - further served to remind Republicans that there is no middle party. In the Senate and House you are either a Republican or a Democrat. Indiana is an overwhelmingly Republican at the present time.”

3. Final CD, Statewide and legislative forecasts

The GOP will easily carry the three statewide races. Reps. Jackie Walorski and Trey Hollingsworth look like comfortable winners. Democrats will pick up three to four House seats (most vulnerable will be Reps. Sally Siegrist, Julie Olthoff, Dale Devon and Martin Carbaugh on the bubble), and three Senate seats (with Republican Sens. Mike Delph, Jon Ford and Ron Grooms the most vulnerable). The Indiana Business for Responsive Government put $20,000 in Grooms late last week and Republicans were accusing Democrat Anna Murray of hiding a late contribution, so they’re worried about that one. The House Republican Campaign Committee put in $27,500 to Carbaugh on Nov. 1. Indiana BankPAC and IBRG put in a combined $9,000 for Devon. HRCC pumped in $24,000 to Siegrist on Halloween. Democrats put in $20,000 in Chris Gambill’s challenge to Sen. Jon Ford, who received $8,000 from the Republican State Committee. So we’re following the late money  as indicators of where the real races are.

4. If Donnelly loses …

If Sen. Donnelly loses, we are looking at the destruction of the Indiana Democratic Party as we know it. It will be in even worse shape than the early 1980s when it could still pull off congressional upsets on occasion. The only survivors of this eight-year demise since the Bayh Dominoes sequence of 2010 which turned Democratic river counties into GOP bastions and Trump Country would be blue seat Reps. Pete Visclosky and Andre Carson, both showing up for President Obama’s rally in Gary on Sunday, but both mostly absent in stumping for Donnelly and down-ballot Dems  this year. Democrats have some big city mayors (Joe Hogsett, Tom Henry, Tom McDermott, Pete Buttigieg, Greg Goodnight and Tony Roswarski) but only Hogsett is remotely positioned for a 2020 gubernatorial run and Indy mayors don’t translate to “outer Indiana.” John Gregg is the only Democrat acting like a prospective challenger to Gov. Eric Holcomb. If Donnelly loses, Indiana becomes a true one-party state.

5. The NRA/Noblesville blunder

The Indiana GOP announced NRA President Ollie North would do the Right Track rally in Noblesville. It was abruptly scrapped when someone realizedthere was a school shooting at West Middle School  in that city last May. Duoh! And the 13-year-old shooter was due on court Monday morning. Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer acknowledged there wasn’t a “scheduling conflict” as the GOP indicated on Sunday. It was "the wrong place and wrong time,"  Hupfer said. It will be interesting to see if there’s a political impact. There could have been a big one if North had actually made the date.

Tuesday’s weather forecast in Indianapolis is high of 54, no rain and windy. At Hammond, high of 51, cloudy and windy. In South Bend it will be a high of 49, a morning shower and windy. In New Albany, breaking clouds, high of 64 and windy. And at Evansville, high of 62, breaking clouds and breezy. Go vote, folks, if you haven’t already done so. It’s The Atomic!