NASHVILLE, Ind. – Over the past several years, we have witnessed a dramatic change in polling on social issues. It has happened nationally on the gay marriage, with a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll showing 59 percent now approve of gay marriage.
And it’s happening here in Indiana. In the Howey Politics Indiana Poll released this past week, we asked the question on whether the General Assembly should expand its civil rights code to include sexual orientation as a protected class. The results were emphatic: 54 percent approved and 34 disagreed.
Proponents of the constitutional marriage ban and recently passed (and then “fixed”) Religious Freedom Restoration Act, including the political team of Gov. Mike Pence, knew that multiple state and national polls showed support trending away from their positions. For instance, the Pence campaign team had indicated to me last year that they had no interest in the constitutional marriage amendment to appear on the 2016 ballot when the governor is expected to seek reelection.
The family groups who purvey wedge issues responded by racing to pass the constitutional marriage HJR-3 in 2014 and RFRA this year with Republican super majorities. It was the same thing that President Obama and Congressional Democrats did after winning the White House and both chambers in 2008. Obamacare was passed with the support of one party.
What Gov. Pence and legislative Republicans failed to anticipate was the voracious kickback from the corporate community, athletes and local governments of both parties which are now racing to pass their own civil rights ordinances.
Some of the most Republican cities in the state - Martinsville, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Whitestown - are now expanding the protection of citizens of all races, creeds, genders and sexual orientation.
We know what happens when political figures and parties overreach. Voters have a propensity of turning them out of office. It happened to Democrats in Congress, and it might have happened to President Obama if Mitt Romney hadn’t been so tone deaf.
Now, with Indiana’s brand deeply damaged, with Gov. Pence’s administration resorting to hiring a New York City public relations firm to the tune of $2 million to help repair the state’s tarnished image, the collateral damage is now extending to the governor.
In the HPI Poll conducted by Bellwether Research pollster Christine Matthews, who has surveyed extensively here in Indiana for the state Republican Party and Gov. Mitch Daniels, Gov. Pence finds him facing what I call historic damage to his brand. Pence’s favorable/unfavorables stand at 35/38%, his job approval stands at 45% approve to 46% disapprove, and he finds himself in close head-to-heads with three potential Democratic gubernatorial challengers, polling well below 50%. A modern Indiana governor has never experienced this kind of survey decline in this short time frame.
A Public Opinion Strategies Poll conducted on behalf of the Indiana Realtors in February had Pence’s approval at 62 percent, identical to Ball State University’s Hoosier Survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research in October 2014. In the April 2013 HPI Poll conducted by Bellwether, Pence’s fav/unfavs stood at 52/20 percent. In a Greenburg/Quinlan/Rosner Research Poll conducted on behalf of The Human Rights Campaign (April 7-9, 500 likely, +/-4.38 percent) Pence’s job performance stood at 43 percent.
Howey Politics and Bellwether tested three potential matchups in the 2016 gubernatorial race, and in all three, Gov. Pence stood well below the 50 percent threshold that signals sturdy political footing. An incumbent polling in the low 40th percentile heading into a reelection sequence is an endangered species. In March 2012, a Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll conducted by Matthews and Democratic pollster Fred Yang found U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar leading Richard Mourdock 42-35 percent in a GOP primary showdown. Lugar went on to lose in a 61-39 percent landslide that May.
Pence had a 43-37 percent lead over 2012 Democratic nominee John Gregg, 43-36 over former congressman Baron Hill, and in the real eye-popper, just a 42-39 percent lead over Democratic Supt. Glenda Ritz, who at this point is intending to seek reelection.
Pence’s problem is in an attempt to climb out of this hole, he is opposed to expanding the state’s civil rights code to include sexual orientation, even while Republican cities like Martinsville are doing just that. In his March 31 press conference which followed his disastrous performance two days earlier on ABC’s “This Week,” Pence was asked about expanding the civil rights code. He answered by saying the issue “isn’t on my agenda.”
On the civil rights expansion, Matthews found that a majority of Roman Catholics (56 percent) support it. Evangelicals are surprisingly divided with 41 percent supporting and 49 percent opposing. “Republicans under 45 support it, while those over 45 are opposed to it,” she said. “Senior men oppose it (52 percent), but senior women support it (56 percent).”
Pence and legislative Republicans were saying this past week that the RFRA “storm” had passed. They are whistling past the graveyard. If Pence and legislative leaders were savvy and recognized reality, they would come back in a special session in May, pass an expanded civil rights code, and reap the benefits of the national press returning for the Indianapolis 500 later that month.It would be a more cost-effective way than paying a white shoe New York firm to try and repair the global damage.
Or, Pence and legislative Republicans could wait until next session, in 2016, which most of us know is an election year.
The columnist publishes at www.howeypolitics.com. Find him on Twitter @hwypol and Howey Politics on Facebook.