By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

1. Watching the ag pain threshold

Here are your Tuesday power lunch talking points: The farm revenue report came out Monday and it was brutal. Farm income is expected to drop nearly 20%  due to nasty weather and President Trump's trade war with China. Purdue farm economist Chris Hurt forecasts a $1.3 billion revenue drop from last year's $6.8 billion. "It’s going to be very discouraging to our Indiana farmers who think they have, and many will have, lower yields and to have basically no help from the price side,” Prof. Hurt said. He added that Monday’s report would amount to total corn and soybean acres in Indiana dropping 8% from last year with corn yields down an estimated 12% and soybean yields down 15%.

This comes as CNBC  reports that U.S. farmers lost one of their biggest customers this week after China officially cancelled all purchases of U.S. agricultural products, a retaliatory move following President Trump’s pledge to slap 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports. “It’s really, really getting bad out here,” said Bob Kuylen, who’s farmed for 35 years in North Dakota. “Trump is ruining our markets. No one is buying our product no more, and we have no markets no more.” Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, said China’s exit is a “body blow to thousands of farmers and ranchers who are already struggling to get by.”

Trump's trade war looks like a protracted affair, with the Associated Press reporting that Chinese President Xi is digging in, with the president for life unready to lose face during the 70th anniversary celebration of the People's Republic of China coming on Oct. 1.

2. Farmers sticking with Trump

All eyes are on Hoosier farmers, who we continue to hear, directly and anecdotally, are sticking with President Trump. He drew about 75% of their vote in 2016. A July Farm Pulse survey put Trump’s overall approval rating is 79% among farmers. A record-high 78% said the trade war will ultimately them, according to a July survey from Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture. This trade war with China looks incoherent to us, with no one able to predict how it ends. So the big political question is how great is their pain threshold? And, once there is a Democratic nominee, will they switch? 

3. Macer won't run for governor

State Rep. Karlee Macer will pass on a Democratic gubernatorial bid in 2020. “The support I’ve seen from communities all across our state and the work Democrats are doing is nothing short of inspiring," she said Tuesday morning. "While I stand ready to roll my sleeves up, and show our state what it means to be a Democrat, I will not be doing so in a bid for governor." Dr. Woody Myers is the only declared Democrat, while State Sen. Eddie Melton is conducting town halls, but has yet to form an exploratory committee.

4. Irsay says Luck has a 'small bone' issue

The growing angst among Colt fans over QB Andrew Luck's calf injury could be tamped down after Colts owner Jim Irsay said this morning that the injury "is a small, little bone" and not muscle related. He told Sirius XM that the team is erring on the side of "extreme caution," thus the reluctance of the team to put Luck through drills. 

5. Epstein and 'serious irregularities'

Attorney General William Barr cited “serious irregularities” surrounding perv Jeffrey Epstein's alleged jail suicide on Saturday. Epstein had no cellmate, was taken off suicide protocols just days after he attempted one, and wasn't regularly monitored by stand-in guards who lacked proper training. “We will get to the bottom of what happened, and there will be accountability," Barr vowed. Where will the buck stop? Perhaps Barr should look in a mirror. This fiasco came under his watch.

Have a great day, folks. It's The Atomic!