Braun upsets Donnelly as GOP surges to apex of power

Senator-elect Mike Braun addresses jubilant Republicans after reclaiming the seat of Richard Lugar from U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly Tuesday. (HPI Photo by Mark Curry)

Tuesday, November 6, 2018 10:34 PM

By BRIAN A. HOWEY
and JACOB CURRY

INDIANAPOLIS – Indiana Republicans waited six years for the moment they that came on election night: Joe Donnelly's unlikely tenure as the Democratic Senator from the Hoosier State ended with an emphatic victory by his opponent Mike Braun. The GOP regained Richard Lugar's former Senate seat with a no-nonsense Jasper businessman leading the charge. With 70% of precincts reporting, he held a 54-42% lead over Donnelly with Libertarian Lucy Brenton at 4%.

Speaking in the JW Marriott's White River Ballroom, before a crowd of jubilant supporters, Senator-elect Mike Braun came to the stage to chants of "Mike! Mike! Mike!" Braun started his speech with the same words he started his primary victory speech with: "What a journey this has been." Beside the smiling pair of Gov. Eric Holcomb and U.S. Sen. Todd Young, Braun began by talking about how he had come to know Hoosiers across the state and promised them "I will not let you down."

Braun’s victory going away capped a stunning election in Vice President Pence’s home state. Braun credited President Trump’s willingness to campaign for him four times. “It was a huge impact,” Braun said. “Hoosiers like the fact that there’s a new agenda in D.C.” With Donnelly’s defeat, only Democrat U.S. Reps. Pete Visclosky and Andre Carson will hold federal seats, and the party failed to make inroads into Republican super majorities in the General Assembly. It was swept in the Statehouse constitutional races. Republicans carried seven out of nine congressional districts, including a victory in the 6th CD by Greg Pence, brother of the vice president. He was joined by 4th CD Republican Jim Baird after his upset primary victory over Braun’s brother.

The Democratic party has returned to its abject status that it shed in 1986 with the emergence of Evan Bayh. The future governor and senator led Indiana to four consecutive Democratic gubernatorial terms at the Statehouse, and the party regularly competed for the Indiana House and several congressional seats. But Bayh’s abrupt retirement from the U.S. Senate in 2010 began a cascading encroachment of Republicans in dozens of legacy Democratic districts.

Braun told electrified Republicans, “I haven’t stayed in a motel or hotel but only four or five times. People put me up. That’s the way a campaign should be. I will not let you down, I promise you.”

Braun said, “Sen. Donnelly called me about 15 minutes ago. Yep. Like any competition, you fight hard, you want to win. It’s gotten way too nasty on both sides. It should be about ideas, about what you bring to the table. Both sides and their families have had to carry that burden and weight.

“What we need to do is to take to Washington what works in the real world. What works in Jasper, Indiana, or Warsaw, Indiana,” Braun said, adding that he wanted to bring people to “fix things in a dysfunctional system. That’s my goal.”

Braun described four limo rides with President Trump, who invested heavily in his campaign beginning two days after his primary win. “Trump unplugged on four rides,” Braun said with wonderment as the crowd hooted. “He asked, ‘Do you think we ought to bring Bobby Knight in your campaign?’ Promises made, promises kept.”

And the crowd went wild. Last Friday, Braun found himself on stage with Trump, Pence and Coach Knight for the Southport rally.

Brian Howey: The volatile Senate race and your vote

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

NASHVILLE, Ind. - Through all the Mexico Joe and China Mike antics, the food fights, splittin’ firewood, through the blur of tens of millions of dollars’ worth of TV ads, the Indiana U.S. Senate race is in its final days. Hoosiers are turning out in record numbers (292,726 ballots cast over the first 14 days of early voting) to decide whether to send Democrat Joe Donnelly back for another six years, or to replace him with Republican Mike Braun. So where do things stand here in the homestretch? First, with Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp likely to lose in North Dakota, the Donnelly/Braun showdown will not determine which party controls the Senate. Democrats had to protect all of their seats to do that. Second, Howey Politics Indiana commentator Chris Sautter writes this week that most “wave elections” take shape in the final days. There are some like the LBJ landslide of 1964 or the Watergate debacle for Republicans that you could see coming. But others like the 1980 Reagan revolution or the Democrat wave of 2006 developed late. Campaigning in Southport Friday night with President Trump and Braun, Vice President Mike Pence said, “We Keep hearing about this blue wave. But I think that blue wave is going to hit a red wall.”

Read More >>
Mark Souder: Trump's gamble on Braun in Indiana

BY: MARK SOUDER

FORT WAYNE - On thing will be certain next Tuesday: If Mike Braun defeats incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly, it will be Trump who won the race. The president is making sure that is clear to everyone by making repeated appearances in Indiana, including stops the day before the vote. Obviously, internal polling – far more frequent (probably daily), possibly by the Brad Parscale operation – is optimistic that Braun will win or it is unlikely that the president would risk his political reputation on Indiana. His advisors also clearly understand that turnout is the key, or he would not be appearing in Fort Wayne on Monday night. There are some interesting subtexts going on as well. Normally when a key battle is in the home state of a sitting vice president, the closing arguments would be from the vice president. Clearly, Trump wants this victory to be seen as his victory, not that of Mike Pence. The vice president has changed his personal emphasis since joining with Donald Trump. Mike Pence recognized the potency of Trump as a brand. In government, as he was in business, Trump is obsessed with the brand “Trump.” He wants it to be seen as his version of classy and, most importantly in his mind, be perceived as a winner. Everything must be the best ever. He makes no apologies. He just keeps moving forward with new greatest things and assumes people will forget any past mistakes.

Read More >>
Chris Sautter: Waves often develop very late

By CHRIS SAUTTER

WASHINGTON – Unforeseen events and dramatic moments can wreak havoc with political forecasts. Talk of a “blue wave” dominated discussions about the midterm elections until the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings woke up the Republican base. Suddenly House races that favored Democrats tightened and toss-up Senate races in red states began to trend toward the Republican candidate. Now another series of unforeseen events is changing the dynamics. The package mail bombs sent by a Trump supporter to prominent Democrats followed by the massacre of eleven at a Pittsburgh synagogue have changed the national conversation. President Trump’s favorability ratings dropped four points in a week back down to the low 40s. There is turmoil and ugliness in the country and Republicans are in control. Voters are again considering whether to elect Democrats as a check on the excesses of a divisive President and a supplicant Congress. The inevitable question, then, is: Do Trump’s falling favorable numbers mark the return of the blue wave? Four former U.S. House members gathered at a forum hosted last week by the National Archives in Washington, D.C. to discuss wave elections.

Read More >>
Jack Colwell: 2nd CD unlikely to change color

By JACK COLWELL

SOUTH BEND – Let’s look at the color of the counties, all 10 in Indiana’s 2nd CD. In 2016, nine were red and one was blue. That combination gave the district a deep red hue as Republican Congresswoman Jackie Walorski won big in reelection to her third term. Only St. Joseph County was blue that night. And even so it was a very pale blue. Walorski darn near carried the largest and most Democratic county in the district. She also won big, very big, in 2014, with a similar color scheme across the district, nine red counties, one blue. It will be a closer race this time, as Democrat Mel Hall, unlike her two prior Democratic challengers, has the resources and organization to threaten a possible upset of the entrenched incumbent. Walorski, realizing the threat and responding to it, agreed to two televised debates this time — winning the first, losing the second — and has found it necessary to hit her opponent with negative TV ads to counter the positive image Hall established earlier in the race.

Read More >>
Rich James: Lake County retirements are never final

By RICH JAMES

MERRILLVILLE – You can say one thing about Lake County Democratic elected officials – retirement is never final. For instance, Lake Circuit Court Judge Lorenzo Arredondo, 77, stepped down from the bench 10 years ago only to run an unsuccessful campaign for attorney general two years ago.
But he’s back and is unopposed to become clerk of the Lake Circuit Court. One can say much the same about Frances DuPey, 79, who retired a few years back as a county commissioner. She is back on the ballot running for St. John Township Board, which is controlled by Republicans, as a Democrat. She was a resident of North Township when serving as commissioner. And speaking of longevity, U.S. Rep. Peter Visclosky is a lock to win a 13th term in the House of Representatives. He would become the longest serving congressman in the state of Indiana, surpassing Lee Hamilton and Ray J. Madden. Visclosky also sits near the top of the Appropriations Committee when it comes to seniority.

Read More >>

Ford defeating Delph, but potential gains modest

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS - In an election where the Indiana Democratic Party had to make serious inroads into Republican General Assembly super majorities to regain relevance, beyond J. D. Ford’s defeat of State Sen. Mike Delph, the effort came up short. With 94% reporting, Ford had a more than a 3,000 vote lead, ahead 53-47%. It was a rematch from their 2014 race and gave Democrats a chance to claim a 10th seat. In the Indiana House, Democrat Chris Campbell had a 59-41% lead over State Rep. Sally Siegrist, with 50% of precincts reporting. In another off-the-radar close call, Democrat State Rep. Melanie Wright had 339-vote victory over Republican Ben Fisher. Democrat Rep. Joe Taylor had less than a 50-vote lead over Republican Troy Dillon in a seat not on the radar. Democrat Kyle Miller was trailing State Rep. Martin Carbaugh by just 399 votes with 53% of precincts reporting.

Read More >>
Atomic! INSen intensity & persuasion; Legis races heat up

By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Nashville, Ind.

1. INSen intensity and persuasion: Here are your final Friday pre-election power lunch talking points: With President Trump and Vice President Pence winging into Southport this evening, we’ve mined down into the two late network polls that gave U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly leads over Mike Braun. In the Fox News Poll that had Donnelly up by a surprising 45-38% margin, the crosstabs revealed Democrats are maintaining a voter intensity edge. Likely voters were asked how interested they are in the Senate race, 44% of Democrats said they were “extremely” interested, compared to 37% for Republicans and 16% for independents. On the ideological spectrum, 45% of liberals, 37% of conservatives, 31% of moderates and 37% of evangelicals described themselves that way. As for location, 42% of suburbanites fit that category, compared to 37% of urban voters and 33% of rural voters. In the head-to-head question, Braun was carrying 78% of Republican voters, compared to 84% of Democrats who support Donnelly. Donnelly had a 30-18% lead among independent voters, while 18% of those were backing Libertarian Lucy Brenton. That poll showed that 19% could change their mind, including 14% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans.

Read More >>
Horse Race: Only handful of House races in play

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS – The battle for the Indiana House is conforming to some of our earliest forecasting, in that there are only a handful of seats that appear to be in play in the final days of the campaign. Howey Politics Indiana has Democratic challenges to Republican State Reps. Julie Olthoff, Dale Devon, Sally Siegrist and Martin Carbaugh in its “Tossup” category, while the open HD71 being vacated by Democratic State Rep. Steve Stemler looks to be a pickup opportunity for Republicans. Chris Campbell's challenge to Rep. Siegrist heated up significantly as Democrats dropped a mailer linking her to the defense of House Speaker Brian Bosma and allegations of a relationship with an intern, according to Dave Bangert of the Lafayette Journal & Courier. Our “Leans” category includes only one race, that of State Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer, who faces a rematch with Democrat John Barnes.

Read More >>
HPI Analysis: Donnelly faces the full brunt of Trump

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS – After a flurry of late polls from obscure firms like Mason and Cygnal, and a few surveys from Republican partisans, the growing perception at the end of last week was that Republican Mike Braun was gaining late momentum in his race to unseat U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly. But on Wednesday, Fox News had Donnelly up 45-38%, which represents a true outlier, while NBC/Marist had Donnelly with a 48-46% lead over Braun, with 2% for “other” and 7% undecided. Donnelly had a 63-47% lead among people who had already voted and he had a 48-32% lead among independents. President Trump’s approval stood at 48/40 approve/disapprove. A CBS News survey released Sunday had Braun leading 46-43%. In the Fox Poll, the race shifted since September when Braun was up by 2%. In early October, Donnelly was up by 2%. Donnelly’s edge comes in large part from greater party loyalty and higher interest in the election among Democrats. Fully 88% of Democrats back him vs. 80% of Republicans for Braun. In addition, nearly 1 in 10 Republicans go for Donnelly. Independents are about twice as likely to support the incumbent. But 19% said they could change their mind.

Read More >>
Horse Race: 4 tossups, 2 leaners in Senate races

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS – While the nine Indiana Senate Democrats had hoped that a “blue wave” would allow them to grow their tiny caucus, our analysis shows only four “Tossup” races and only two in the “Leans” category. Any Democrat gains will be very modest. Our tossup races include the J.D. Ford rematch with Sen. Mike Delph, Sen. Jon Ford’s efforts to turn back Democrat Chris Gambill, the open SD26 in the Delaware/Madison county area, and Anna Murray’s challenge to Sen. Ron Grooms in the suburban Louisville area. The “Kavanaugh effect” has probably helped several other potentially vulnerable Republicans, but it could be backfiring in a couple of Indianapolis suburban races involving Delph and Sen. Jim Merritt. Of those two, Merritt appears to be on safer ground than Delph, who is in a true dogfight.

Read More >>

Gov. Holcomb congratulates Braun, GOP ticket

“Congratulations to Mike Braun, Indiana’s next U.S. Senator. I’ve always said that we need more Indiana in Washington, and that’s exactly what we’re getting with Mike Braun. Mike Braun understands the 28 words of the 10th Amendment. He’s built a homegrown Indiana business and served at the Statehouse. He knows a thing or two about Hoosier solutions – and he’ll take those solutions with him Washington.” - Gov. Eric Holcomb, on the election of Republican Mike Braun over U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly. Holcomb also congratulated the GOP statewide ticket of Secretary of State Connie Lawson, Auditor Tera Klutz and Treasurer Kelly Mitchell. Republicans also won seven of nine congressional districts. Braun has received calls from President Trump and Vice President Pence on his victory.

The General Assembly 'legacy election'

While we’ve concentrated on 10 Indiana Senate races and 20 House races, the 2018 mid-term elections will also be known as the legacy election. There will be five familiar political names joining the General Assembly on Nov. 6. Gary Councilwoman Ragen Hatcher will be elected in HD3. She’s unopposed and is the daughter of legendary Gary Mayor Richard G. Hatcher. About 80 miles east, Christy Stutzman will win HD49. She, too, is unopposed and is the wife of former congressman Marlin Stutzman.

The son of State Rep. Jim Baird, the 4th CD Republican nominee expected to win, is Beau Baird, who is facing Democrat Kimberly Fidler in HD 44. In HD43, Tonya Pfaff is expected to win, facing Republican Darrell Felling. She’s the daughter of Fred Nation, the former press secretary of Gov. Evan Bayh and a former Democratic Terre Haute mayoral nominee In HD64, Matt Hostettler, the son of former congressman John Hostettler, is running unopposed as a Republican.

You've got to think this class will provide some future leadership in the House. - Brian A. Howey, publisher.