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Thursday, November 5, 2020
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HPI Analysis: Holcomb leads INGOP to its apex with landslide victory
Thursday, November 5, 2020 10:05 AM
By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS  – Gov. Eric Holcomb became the sixth governor to win reelection with a victory that could establish a modern plurality record once all the votes are tabulated sometime between now and Friday.

In doing so, he led the Indiana Republican Party to its apex, controlling both General Assembly chambers with three consecutive super majorities, a 9-2 edge in in the state’s congressional delegation, all of the Statehouse constitutional offices, and between 80% to more than 90% of county courthouse offices and county commissioners.

He will govern a state that is part of the Divided States of America. The map across the nation has become a sea of red, with blue islands. The defeat of Democratic State Rep. Terry Goodin by Republican Zach Payne means the Indiana Democratic Party has been essentially scoured from the last rural district the party represented and is now firmly relegated to Lake and St. Joseph counties, Indianapolis and the university cities.

Holcomb defeated Dr. Woody Myers by a 57%-32% margin, with Libertarian Donald Rainwater picking up 12% with 92% of precincts reporting. Myers had the perfect resume for the times that included a once-in-a-century pandemic and the Black Lives Movement, but when he posted a mere $14,000 on his year-end report after declaring for office six months earlier, and had just $80,000 cash on hand at the end of the third quarter, it put in motion down-ballot carnage for Indiana Democrats, who lost the chance to cut into GOP super majorities in the Indiana House and Senate and pick up a congressional seat.

“I couldn’t be more grateful that our neighbors, families, friends, and Hoosiers from all across Indiana put their trust in us to lead our great state for another four years,” Holcomb said a couple of hours after he was declared the winner just after 7 p.m. Tuesday. “There’s no beating around the bush; COVID-19 is an unprecedented challenge that slowed us down. But Hoosiers are the most resilient people in the world. We’re getting back on track, and our victory today is the first step toward getting our state back to setting records.”
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  • Mark Souder: The purple wave

    BY: MARK SOUDER
    FORT WAYNE – Election day and election night were for much of my life intense experiences of adrenalin rush, excitement and tension. My first thrilling experience was in 1980. I was standing in front a television set, watching Ronald Reagan win the presidency and Republican Senate candidates topple one Democrat legend after another, including our Congressman Dan Quayle upsetting Sen. Birch Bayh. It was a Republican wave. In 1994, I was part of another Republican wave (a tsunami), when I upset Congresswoman Jill Long as part of the Republican Revolution in the U.S. House, when for the first time in 40 years Republicans took control. The Dems had held power for so long, as new Speaker Newt Gingrich said, we found rooms we didn’t know existed in the Capitol Building. The Dems thought they could continue their blue wave of 2018 this year, humiliating President Donald Trump, winning control of the Senate, and advancing to a more stable control of the U.S. House. Instead they ran into a purple wave. Here is how you define a purple wave: You have red areas (definition: Indiana) and blue areas (definition: California), and among them you have a bunch of states that cast millions of votes, yet the next day (e.g. Wisconsin, Michigan) the presidential candidates are separated by less than 1%. 
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  • Pete Seat: Now the hard part comes for voters

    By PETE SEAT
    INDIANAPOLIS – Congratulations, fellow voter, you cast a ballot. Now it’s time to sit back, relax and let our newly elected, or reelected, representatives take it from here, right? Not exactly. Actually, I have bad news. Your work is far from over. That “I Voted” sticker we saw in your Facebook selfie is nothing more than a signing bonus. You see, this whole representative democracy thing only works if we are constantly engaged in the process. And, my, is it a process. It’s not like mixing up a few ingredients in a pan, throwing it in the oven and coming back an hour later to find a finished product. Nope. This process is more like cooking a pot of soup on the stove. You’ve got to lift up the lid every so often to inspect what’s going on inside. Stir it up. Make sure nothing sticks to the bottom. It’s the only way to get it to taste just right. I know candidates talk about the finish line of Election Day like the hard work is over when it’s merely the starting gate of their governing and our paying attention. “On election nights, we remind each other that victory is not a vindication, it is an instruction, not an endorsement, but an assignment,” former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said in a widely praised 2011 speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference.
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  • Michael Hicks: Some places of economic compromise

    By MICHAEL HICKS
    MUNCIE – The quasi-end of the election has most of us thinking about what the results mean for the economy. Other than forecasting a recession among political pollsters, there are few certain answers. However, we have to face the fact that bipartisan lawmaking has been absent since about 2002. That leaves a lot of issues needing the kind of thoughtful, principled compromise that is really the hallmark of American democracy. I’m not excited about some of the likely outcomes, but that is how compromise works. Here’s where compromise is most probable. We are in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and that gives us a chance for Congress to compromise. The pandemic is worsening across most of the nation and nearly one out of every six Americans who was working last January is now jobless. This should prompt a major COVID relief bill. It will support workers, some businesses and state and local governments. It will also add something between $1.5 trillion and $2.5 trillion to our national debt. Federal taxes are certain to increase. The whopping $1.05 trillion deficit from the “world’s best economy” of 2019 illustrates the need for change.
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  • Lee Hamilton: What helps voters decide?

    By LEE HAMILTON
    BLOOMINGTON – Like any American who cares about this country, I have a deep interest in the results of this election. But as a politician (I think one never really retires from that job), I take a professional interest, as well. Not only for policy or partisan concerns, but because I’m always interested in how people make up their minds on how to vote. This is an occupational hazard, I think. I was on the ballot 34 times over the course of my career and have spent a lot of time thinking about why people vote as they do. To be sure, we each have our own reasons for where we come down: Sometimes based on policy preferences, sometimes because projects we care about will be advanced by voting a certain way, sometimes because there’s one issue we care about above all others. Still, I think there’s one key factor that doesn’t get taken as seriously as it should, likability. We’ve all heard this notion expressed as, “Who’d you rather have a beer with?” Or, as a group of Democratic women who were planning to vote for Ronald Reagan once explained, they liked the unfailingly gracious and courteous way he treated his wife, Nancy. This is not frivolous. I’d argue, in fact, that “likability” is actually a complex decision.
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  • Morton Marcus: Pernicious percentages mystify many

    By MORTON J. MARCUS

    INDIANAPOLIS – Billy and wife Billie visited over the weekend. “Well, go ahead, tell him,” Billie declaimed as she slid into a rocking chair, glass of iced tea in hand. “I’m tired of explaining what he couldn’t be bothered to learn, bull-headed creature that he is.” “What’s the problem Billy?” I asked. “My boss,” Billy, who isn’t too generous with words, said. “His boss, my foot,” Billie interjected, obviously intending to be the color commentator to Billy’s play-by-play. “What about your boss?” I asked. “Cut our pay by 50%,” Billy said.
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  • Horse Race: Spartz defeats Hale to win 5th CD

    Horse Race: Spartz defeats Hale to win 5th CD

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS – The suburban female college-educated vote was supposed to deliver Democratic victories to candidates like Christina Hale in Indiana’s 5th CD. But when the dust settled Wednesday evening, Republican Victoria Spartz declared victory. “I am so honored and humbled by the trust the people of Indiana’s 5th District have placed in me,” Spartz said. This has been a long, tough campaign and I look forward uniting Hoosiers around real solutions and serving every resident of Indiana’s 5th District by ensuring we have the right policies for a strong economy, good schools, affordable healthcare and a great quality of life.” Spartz won the open seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks, 50-46%, or by 206,879 to 188,928 with 99% of the precincts reporting. 
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  • Horse Race: Qaddoura defeats Sen. Ruckelshaus; Gore poised for upset of Kirchhofer

    Horse Race: Qaddoura defeats Sen. Ruckelshaus; Gore poised for upset of Kirchhofer

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - Two Republicans, State Sen. John Ruckelshaus and State Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer were defeated for reelection after Marion County results were tabulated on Wednesday. State Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer, the Marion County Republican chairwoman, was trailing Democrat Mitch Gore with 97% reporting 13,651-13,024 or 51-49%. With Kirchhofer’s apparent loss, it appears Republicans will control the House 70-30 with the defeats of Democratic Reps. Terry Goodin, Chris Chyung and Lisa Beck.
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  • Indiana delegation mum on Trump's vote count declaration

    Indiana delegation mum on Trump's vote count declaration

    By MARK SCHOEFF JR.

    WASHINGTON  — Republican members of the Indiana congressional delegation are staying silent about President Donald Trump’s declaration of victory and his call to stop the vote counting prematurely. Early Wednesday morning, Trump asserted he had prevailed over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden even though hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots had not been tallied. He said any votes tabulated beyond that point would be fraudulent. “Frankly, we did win this election,” Trump said at a White House event. “So our goal now is to ensure the integrity for the good of this nation. So, we’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all the voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at four o’clock in the morning and add them to the list.”
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  • Atomic: Trump, Biden closing; Indiana COVID explosion; 5th CD tossup and down ballot signals

    Atomic: Trump, Biden closing; Indiana COVID explosion; 5th CD tossup and down ballot signals

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

    1. Closing arguments: Here are your final power lunch talking points for the week: Weekends before elections are often when landslides form and undecided bolt mostly in one direction. In the epic race between President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, here are the data sets: FiveThirtyEight: Biden has an 89% chance of winning; Economist: Biden has 95% chance of winning Electoral College, 99% of winning the popular vote; Real Clear Politics: National polling composite has Biden leading Trump 51.3% to 43.5%. In key swing states: Pennsylvania Biden up 3.6%, Florida Biden up 1.2%, Georgia Biden up 0.4%, Arizona is tied, Wisconsin Biden up 6.4%, Michigan Biden up 6.5%, Ohio tied, and Pennsylvania Biden up 3.6%. Both Trump and Biden were in Tampa on Thursday; both in the Midwest "Blue Wall" states today. Joe Biden: "I know it's hard. Over the past few months there’s been so much pain, so much suffering, so much loss. Millions of people out there are out of work, on the edge, can’t see the light of the end of the tunnel, and Donald Trump has given up." President Trump: "You know the bottom line, though? You're gonna get better. You're gonna get better. If I can get better, anybody can get better. And I got better fast.” The elephant and donkeys on the table: For Trump, it's the pandemic, where the death toll stands at 229,934, with 1,074 dying in the previous 24 hours and swamped medical systems are setting up COVID tents in Utah, Wisconsin and Texas parking lots. For Biden, it's a 33% jump in the 3Q GDP, after a 31.4% plunge in 2Q.
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  • HPI Analysis: Trump v. Biden homestretch

    HPI Analysis: Trump v. Biden homestretch

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS  – And now the hard part: Telling my readers what to expect on Election Night and the mysterious beyond, which might last hours, or months. While 2016 was the “Anything Can Happen” election between two historically loathsome nominees, 2020 has become a referendum on President Trump, and, specifically, his handling of the unprecedented pandemic and simultaneous economic meltdown. Had the pandemic not happened, President Trump probably would have been zeroing in on reelection, becoming the unprecedented fourth consecutive two-termer, topping the Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe trifecta. While Trump tried to perpetuate the aura of his greatest ever economy, he has yet to escape the deadly grip of the pandemic. Last February and early March, he frequently said it would “mysteriously go away.” Even during the nationwide shutdown, he said he expected normalcy by Easter. Vice President Pence said in May it would be in the rearview mirror by Memorial Day. In a mid-June Wall Street Journal op-ed, Pence insisted the “second wave” was a concoction of the news media. These past two weeks, Trump conveyed that America had “turned the corner” on the pandemic that is now infecting 70,000 people a day, killing upwards of a thousand.
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  • Spartz declared winner of 5th CD

    Spartz declared winner of 5th CD

    "I am so honored and humbled by the trust the people of Indiana’s 5th District have placed in me. This has been a long, tough campaign and I look forward uniting Hoosiers around real solutions and serving every resident of Indiana’s 5th District by ensuring we have the right policies for a strong economy, good schools, affordable healthcare and a great quality of life.” - State Sen. Victoria Spartz, who the Associated Press has declared the winner of the 5th CD over Democrat Christina Hale. Spartz won the open seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks, 50-46%, or by 206,879 to 188,928 with 99% of the precincts reporting. Hale conceded, saying, "Congratulations to Victoria Spartz, our next Congresswoman from Indiana. Today, I would like to acknowledge the effort of everyone who supported our campaign. From our talented and hardworking staff to the hundreds of volunteers who spent hours phone-banking on our behalf, to the thousands who put up a yard sign, and everyone who contributed. I am in awe of the depth of support from my husband Chris and all of my dearest friends and family. We would not have gotten this far without you and I’ll always be thankful for your help."
     
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  • Beau Bayh makes campaign debut

    Beau Bayh makes campaign debut

    “The first home I went home to in Indianapolis was the Governor’s Mansion, which is proof that Democrats can win in Indiana.” - Beau Bayh, campaigning on behalf of Democrat gubernatorial nominee Woody Myers. He is the son of former governor and senator Evan Bayh. In October 1984, a young Evan Bayh barnstormed the state with underdog gubernatorial hopeful Wayne Townsend ("Go get 'em, Wayne"). When the pair appeared at the Elkhart Truth, reporter (and future Bayh) staffer Phil Schermerhorn asked Bayh, "Evan, what are you running for?"). In 1986, Evan Bayh won the secretary of state's office, then ended the GOP's 20-year gubernatorial dynasty two years later. With Hoosier Democrats barely above the Libertarians in the party pecking order (Donald Rainwater is running TV and radio ads; Myers isn't), the young Bayh's appearance will stoke up speculation that it may take a third-generation Bayh to restore Indiana Democrats to major party status.
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