INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana’s unemployment rate in July was 10.1 percent; this was the twelfth highest of the 50 states. Nevada was running at 14.3 percent to lead the nation while the lowest rate was 3.6 percent in North Dakota. We’re much closer to the worst than we are to the best.
Are these the best of times or the worst of times? In material terms, these might be the best of times. Many of the poorest walk around with cell phones to their ears; children go to air conditioned schools that are downhill (both ways) from home; machines for washing dishes and clothes stand ready for duty in many homes where baseball games are watched in HDTV on screens longer than the arm of any adult in the house.
Psychologically, these are bad times. Uncertainty is rampant in the economy. Fear and anxiety are responses to uncertainty that plague many households and businesses. Most, however, responded to the current economic uncertainty with caution. They cut back on spending, increased cash balances, reduced debt and assumed an adamant position sitting on their wallets.
Nonetheless, these are not the worst of times. As we scan the records of unemployment rates from January 1976 to the present, July 2010 was the worst month for only one state (Nevada, 14.3 percent). Indiana’s highest unemployment rate in those 34 years was 12.7 percent in January 1983. It was during that 1982-83 recession that 29 of our 50 states experienced their peak unemployment rates.
That long term view offers some comfort, but does not tell us if we are better off now than a year ago. Indiana’s unemployment rate in July was 10.1 percent compared to 10.3 percent a year earlier. But we have learned that an improvement in the unemployment rate is not necessarily the sign of a healthy economy.
Over the past year, the number of persons employed in Indiana has declined by nearly 52,000 persons (1.8 percent) which is the fifth worse case in the nation. Simultaneously, we saw the number unemployed fall by 11,000. Put those two numbers together and Indiana’s labor force dropped by 63,300, a two percent decline, the sixth worse case in the U.S.
Our state’s economy remains in bad shape. We are one of 17 states that had the numbers of employed and unemployed persons both drop in the past year. We’re in the same class as New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Kentucky. Normally, when people lose jobs, the number unemployed rises. These times are so tough that people who already are unemployed leave the labor force along with those losing their jobs. The result is that the unemployment rate may improve although the underlying conditions are worsening.
Indiana had 39 counties in which the number of employed persons grew in the past year. As the number of employed persons grew in 26 of these counties, the number unemployed declined while the labor force grew. Kosciusko (Warsaw) is an example: employment grew by 2,100, unemployment fell by 900, and the labor force increased by 1,200.
The majority of Indiana counties (53) saw the number employed fall.
In 22 of these counties, the decline in employment was accompanied by a rise in unemployment. Vanderburgh (Evansville) exemplifies these counties with a 2,500 decline in employed persons and a rise of only 900 in those unemployed. The result was a labor force shrinkage of 1,600.
By contrast, there were 31 counties where the numbers employed and unemployed fell, depressing the labor force. Shelby County, for example, saw a 900 person decrease in its labor force, the combination of a loss of 700 persons with jobs and a decline of 200 in those unemployed.
As ever, the full story is always deeper than the headlines.
Mr. Marcus is an independent economist, speaker, and writer formerly with IU’s Kelley School of Business.
5/14/2010 7:27:00 AM Brian Howey: Evan Bayh's one fine mess for Indiana Democrats
BY: BRIAN A. HOWEY Publisher
INDIANAPOLIS - In compiling my first fall Indiana House Horse Race predictions and then receiving the Rasmussen Reports poll on the U.S. Senate race, the potentially immense impact Evan Bayh’s retirement decision has on the Senate race begins to sink in.
For Indiana Democrats, it could be a disaster.
The Rasmussen Reports poll from May 5-6 has Republican Dan Coats leading U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth 51-36 percent. Now, one of my favorite lines has been to not place too much importance on polling in April and May. If we had done so in 1992, we would have expected a President Perot.
But even at this early date, what is unmistakable is that a once relatively safe U.S. Senate seat in the Democratic column may be slipping away. At the Coats victory party on Election Night, the room seemed flat and uninspired. The Coats candidacy is not a wellspring of grassroots activism and emotion. But many believe the Coats candidacy scared Bayh out of the race.
Bayh certainly would have had an intense reelection battle and I suspect he was looking at internal numbers showing that his landslide days have abated. But even in an environment hostile to incumbents, and considering the history of one-time presidential candidates coming home and losing, Bayh probably was looking at a victory in the 5 to 7 percent range instead of his customary 25 percent. Ellsworth has had to put a campaign together on the fly and many are openly wondering about its outreach to African-Americans, Latinos, labor and the news media. It hasn’t been pretty.
Whatever Bayh saw, the fact is that he has left his party in dire straits.
Ellsworth’s 8th CD certainly would have been in play in the fall. But as part of the Bayh retirement dominoes, it also is on the endangered list for Democrats. HPI probably would have had the race in a "Leans" Ellsworth category until Dr. Larry Bucshon could demonstrate that he could match his establishment support and pick up that of the Kristi Risk Tea Party wing. I rate it as a "Tossup."
Bucshon could be one of the few new faces the Tea Party has been seeking, and his will be a voice that can articulately speak to the health care reforms that, in the Rasmussen Poll, find 59 percent of Hoosiers favor repealing.
So there are a U.S. Senate seat and a U.S. House seat on the post-Bayh endangered list.
Now look at the Indiana House seats. HD76 is an open seat now that State Rep. Trent Van Haaften has migrated to the 8th CD. The Democrat domino is State Sen. Bob Dieg, who is making a rare move from the Indiana Senate to the House. But the Republicans have a great candidate in educator Wendy McNamara and so a once "safe or llikely" Democrat seat goes into the "Tossup" zone because it is open, the GOP candidate is strong, and the environment is decidedly Republican.
So there are a U.S. Senate seat, a U.S. House seat, and an Indiana House seat at "Tossup" or worse for the Democrats.
Until Bayh’s last appearance on the ballot, he had long coattails for the Indiana House candidates, usually taking three new House seats with him. The wardrobe has changed. Ellsworth is wearing a tuxedo T-shirt as opposed to evening wear. When you go through the Indiana House Horse Race list, there are three Democratic seats that we believe are likely to head into the GOP column (held by Reps. Nancy Michael, Ron Herrell and the open seat of Vern Tincher). So there goes the House. It was poised to go anyway, but Democrats at this milepost are looking at a sieve.
There are another three or four Southern Indiana House seats in addition to those already discussed (held by State Reps. Gail Riecken, Paul Robertson, Bob Bischoff) that are out of the "Safe" and "Likely" Democratic column and into the "Leans" category. Seven Democratic seats are in "Tossup."
So the tally is now a U.S. Senate seat, a U.S. House seat (and we haven’t even touched on the Bayh coattails as related to U.S. Reps. Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill who will be in a "Tossup" race next week) and now perhaps three to six Indiana House seats in play ... and this is a potential disaster.
But you can’t pin all the blame on Evan Bayh for a tsunami scenario. What you can blame on Bayh is the 11th hour timing (on Feb. 15, President’s Day) and the Chinese fire drill that followed, as well as that Democratic primary ballot that didn’t even have the U.S. Senate race listed.
This gets into base motivation and voter intensity. The Democrats lost those elements in 1994 and paid a dear price. The fact that 30 Democrats on the Central Committee will make the Senate nomination call is old style, paternalistic politics. Now add the high support for health care repeal, President Obama’s 43/58 fav/unfavs and this is, at this point (to be charitable) one fine mess.
