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FORT WAYNE - The big winners of Indiana primary election day 2012:
1. Richard Mourdock: “Landslide Richard,” one of the two Richards who carried the Indianapolis metro in a Republican primary. Talk about a “wow” factor.
2. Howey Politics: Getting a small but influential political report mentioned in the ads of Indiana’s longest serving senator is no mean feat (the Mourdock missed meetings) but the Howey Politics/DePauw University Poll was cited everywhere, and was absolutely on target.
3. Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group: The incredible value of this poll was not the head-to-head (almost any firm can do that) but the underneath questions that predicted the path, not just the history. The key question of whether you altered your opinions in the last seven to 14 days, combined with favorable/unfavorable ratings (showing Mourdock with higher favorable and lower unfavorable, as well as 96% name identification; evidence that Lugar’s ad campaign had failed); hints of geographic vote changes in the Indy area; and the extra 50 test names to see if new voters could impact race showed professionalism at its best. The poll showed a 10-point lead but a straight upward line for Mourdock.
4. Club for Growth, Freedom Works, Tea Party Express and their national coalition: It was looking grim with their failure to knock out Orrin Hatch. Had they lost, their future would have been shaky. But the defeat – the overwhelming defeat – of international leader Senator Lugar will once again mean that senators who drift will potentially be held accountable. I will never forget the comment of Senator Arlen Spector to me when we were discussing a bill that would help people in Pennsylvania and Indiana. He said: “I just won. Nobody cares what I do now. They will forget it in six years. I’ll campaign at the end and win.” Or, maybe not.
5. The Indiana Tea Party and its leaders: First, every liberal media person, Democrat and frustrated Lugar supporter, has made them into a giant monolith and power far beyond their size in Indiana. Yet without them, Lugar would likely have coasted again. Two key leaders – Monica Boyer of Warsaw and Greg Fettig of Noblesville – led the effort, backed by other Tea Party groups, to have only one major candidate. Mourdock set his jaw and Mike Delph blinked, with a mix of personal choices. The Tea Party backed Mourdock, he bear-hugged them as a way to demonstrate that he was not “them” (Washington) and myth was born. Truth is that there aren’t exactly “Tea Party” membership cards. Each group – for example, several in Elkhart County – has a slightly different emphasis, and many are libertarians to whom the very thought of organized “anything” is evil. But what would we commentators have done without the Tea Party label to explain what was happening?
6. Susan Brooks: Her gritty win marks her as a future leader in one of America’s safest Republican seats. And, sorry I have to say this. My kids all graduated from Homestead High School in Fort Wayne. It is so gratifying to have a Homestead grad representing Carmel High School.
7. Luke Messer: Persistence pays off and he will never have to hear “potential future leader” again.
8. Congressman Larry Bucshon: He was the shakiest of the incumbents, with the least political background. He defeated activist Kristi Risk in a rematch. He’s not the glamour boy of the delegation, but if he beats Crooks, he may be around awhile in a district that was once called the Bloody 8th for good reason.
9. Jackie Walorski: She is a variation of “persistence pays” and “get yourself a good map in redistricting.” Remember this: Joe Donnelly decided he’d rather run against Lugar than Walorski. But her race was more than just those two points. She has developed as a campaigner. She has some strength in St. Joe County, her home, and not just the GOP bastion of Elkhart. Joe Donnelly may help the ticket in that region, but on the other hand, Jackie is likely to help Romney, Pence, and Mourdock. Indiana will go from no female Republican representatives in Congress to two potentially dynamic female members.
10. Local housing markets: With Charlie White convicted, and Lugar and McIntosh having residency as a huge issue, Fort Wayne’s State Rep. Win Moses is scurrying to move back home from Indianapolis. His race will be a race to watch this fall, with 65% new, now majority Republican. I expect we shall see some scrambling to move back among the voters. Tie with Lincoln Days and parades.
Let me close with two thoughts:
Senator Lugar was one of the most personally gracious and intelligent men I ever met. He deserves our respect and thanks. Even when I disagreed with him on an issue, I always read and/or listened to his explanations because they were worthy of thought and analysis to challenge my own. He was ill-served in this campaign, from failure to anticipate an easily resolved residency problem to a pathetic, sad “whine” memo after a gracious consensus speech. Whether he wrote it or his staff did (my guess is staff, but we will never really know), it was his staff’s obligation to stop it last night. We all need to move beyond Tuesday’s primary and realize that we were represented by a living legend, not an ordinary politician.
The incredibly inaccurate spin that Mourdock will be easier to beat is an example of political spin, logical, by my friend Joe Donnelly. Of course he would say that, so would I in his shoes. But the supposedly impartial media can’t just make assertions with no facts. National publications are comparing Mourdock to candidates who never won statewide elections, who had papered their state with stupid quotes, and who only had pockets of support. Republican turnout was not low, it was 50% higher than the McCain’s 2008 vote.
The Democrat vote cratered, and it wasn’t due to heavy Democrat crossover. In Hamilton County for example, they only have three Democrats, and one is marginal. Plus, how can anyone claim that the person who just defeated a living legend by 20 points – winning the Indy metro, the urban counties and the rural counties – is “weaker” than the person they just clobbered?
The Republicans, possibly Pence’s lieutenant governor choice, and the replacement for state treasurer, will need some Indianapolis area balance and some Lugar allies. Connie Lawson’s selection as secretary of state was a big start. But I look at the statewide, congressional and local candidates and see “sweep.” And, of course, we Republicans are thankful that President Obama is on the ballot.
Souder is a former Republican member of Congress.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012 |
