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Thursday, May 05, 2016
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Thursday, October 15, 2015 9:20 AM
By BRIAN A. HOWEY
    
INDIANAPOLIS – Gov. Mike Pence kicked off the infrastructure debate with a $1 billion proposal to repair state highways, interstates and bridges. Local government officials want the governor and General Assembly to take it several steps further, and provide what the Indiana Association of Cities & Towns calls a “sustainable” funding source. IACT President Matthew Greller told Howey Politics Indiana on Wednesday that the Pence plan is a good start. “The big thing is it’s good the administration is addressing infrastructure in a very serious way with a very serious proposal and a lot of money. But it includes no money for city and town streets and county roads. I’m disappointed because the vast majority of road miles in Indiana are maintained by local governments.”
  • Young defeats Stutzman; Banks, Hollingsworth win open CDs
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - Todd Young won an emphatic Republican U.S. Senate primary Tuesday night and will now prepare for a rematch with Democratic Baron Hill. “As a Marine, I can sum it up in one word: Boorah!” Young said in the Victory Ballroom of the Hilton Hotel in Indianapolis Tuesday night. Young was leading Stutzman 67-33% with 87% of Indiana precincts reporting. “I had confidence from the beginning this was going to be a team effort, and you didn’t let me down,” Young told several hundred supporters. “All of you are here today because we share our common sense Hoosier values,” Young said. “This was a hard fought race. I think it’s appropriate we stop, we pause, and we recognize how much we respect Marlin Stutzman.” Young told his supporters, “The world is a dangerous place and you can’t turn your back on the world. You deserve a U.S. Senator who understands that fundamental principle.” He added that “Baron Hill is prepared to put his lobbying career on hold.”
  • Sanders rallies an embattled Hoosier middle class on election eve
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - Somewhere in the universe, Eugene Debs was smiling over Monument Circle. There, on a cool, damp election eve, socialist U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders spoke of a revolution before some 10,000 Hoosiers disgusted by the decline of the American middle class. Sanders spoke as the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll showed him trailing Hillary Clinton in the Indiana Democratic presidential primary 50-46%, a race within the margin of error. Sanders insisted that the margin of financial error for millions of Hoosiers and Americans has vanished. “Hey Indy, are you ready for a revolution?” Sanders said as the statue “Victory” high atop the Soldiers and Sailors Monument rose above him, and yet below the Chase Tower, the Hoosier State's tallest skyscraper. “We have won 17 primaries and caucuses. I have a feeling that with your support we’re going to make it No. 18.” Scanning the crowd filled with young people, Sanders said, “What it means is our ideas are the future of America. Our ideas are the future of the Democratic Party.”

  • Pence campaigns with Cruz in Marion, Fort Wayne

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - After a weekend of criticism over what was roundly described as a tepid and half-hearted endorsement, Gov. Mike Pence hit the campaign trail with Ted Cruz. The two Republicans worked a large crowd at a Marion restaurant mid-day Monday. Asked about the Pence endorsement, Cruz said, “It’s incredibly important. Every year he’s cut taxes and reduced regulation. We need to bring this type of conservatism to Washington.” As the two Republicans wound through the crowd, Pence was asked about his support of Cruz, “I think this is the time for choosing. It’s wonderful people of Indiana have a chance to play a leading role," Pence said. "My choice is Ted Cruz but I’m really looking forward to the polls opening tomorrow and Indiana getting its say.”
    In an interview a short time later with NBC's Hallie Jackson, Pence said, "I am extremely impressed with his knowledge of the Constitution and the liberties enshrined there, the 2nd Amendment and his commitment to the sanctity of life. All of these are reasons why I have chosen to support Ted Cruz. How Hoosiers across the state are in the process of making up their own minds and Hoosiers have a tendency to do that and I respect that. For me, for my part, I want people to know I am supporting Ted Cruz in the Indiana primary."

  • Hillary assails Trump, Cruz in final pitch to Hoosier voters
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - Hillary Clinton made her closing case for a second Indiana Democratic presidential primary victory at an east side Indianapolis park gym Sunday afternoon, vowing to defend Obamacare, push for gun reforms and policies to spur manufacturing growth. It comes as the former senator and secretary of state is leading Bernie Sanders by just 50 to 46% margin in an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll released Sunday morning. That poll also showed Republican Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz 49-34%. Clinton poked at her potential Republican rivals, saying that violence at Donald Trump rallies reminded her of a “faraway country,” adding, “Enough! Enough!” She ridiculed Ted Cruz’s plan to patrol Muslim neighborhoods as an anti-terror method, calling it “dangerous talk.” She reminded the crowd of about 500 at Douglass Park that it wasn’t so long ago that 23 million jobs were created, wages were rising and crime was falling. “I remember the 1990s when a Clinton was president,” the former First Lady said as the crowd erupted in cheers. “What happened? Well, one thing that happened was we got a Republican president. We ended up in one of the worst financial crisis.”
  • NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll has Trump up 15% in Indiana

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - A new NBC/Wall Street Jounrla/Marist Poll shows Donald Trump expanding his lead in Indiana, 49-34% with Ohio Gov. John Kasich comes in at 13%. Trump's lead has expanded since the April 18-21 survey by WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana which had Trump leading 37-31. In the Hoosier State's Democratic contest, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by just four points, 50 to 46%.
    "In Indiana, Trump is positioned to corral all the [state's 57] delegates, which will be a big prize toward winning the nomination outright," Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion told NBC News. "Clinton and Sanders are more likely to divide the delegate pool, which will do little to change the narrative on the Democratic side." Since the WTHR/Howey Poll, Trump has held two massive rallies in Indiana drawing more than 20,000 people with former Indiana University coach Bobby Knight, while Cruz has focused on a classic ground game, cut a deal with Kasich, picked Carl Fiorina for a potential ticket, and received a tepid endorsement from Gov. Mike Pence.

  • WTHR/Howey Poll: Translating prez race to Congressional Districts

    By KYLE KONDIK and GEOFFREY SKELLEY
    Sabato’s Crystal Ball

        
    CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – One could not be blamed for looking at the Republican primary results over the past 10 days and questioning how someone could stop Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee. But a look at the delegate math suggests that the race is not over yet. As we laid out after New York, the roadmap to a Trump delegate majority involved big wins in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states that voted this past Tuesday. To be sure, Trump’s wins were larger than the polling averages suggested, just like the Empire State primary a week earlier: He generally ran several points ahead of his polling in these states and ran slightly ahead of our delegate roadmap.
    But as things stand, all paths to 1,237 delegates for Trump run through Indiana and California. And the Hoosier State primary on May 3 is ground zero for the anti-Trump forces if they want to trip up the real estate mogul and reality TV star. If Trump wins statewide in Indiana, which is winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district, he would remain on pace to cross the majority threshold.

  • Pence to vote for Cruz, Trump camp says Gov risks reelection bid

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    NASHVILLE, Ind. - Gov. Mike Pence said he will vote for Sen. Ted Cruz in Tuesday’s presidential primary. “I see Ted Cruz as a principled conservative who has spent his year advocating the Reagan agenda,” Pence said on WIBC’s “Garrison Show” just after noon today. “I really admire the way Ted Cruz has been ready to stand up for taxpayers and against runaway spending.” Still to be determined is whether Pence will hit the campaign trail with Cruz, the way Carly Fiorina has been making appearances with Cruz. Pence said there are discussions to do just that with the Cruz campaign.
    Reaction to the endorsement was described as "tepid" and "less than full-throated." It comes as Pence is is locked in a 49-45% race against Democrat John Gregg in the WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll while his fav/unfav stands at 44/41% and the Indiana right/wrong track is at 44/45%. Trump campaign Indiana vice chairman Tony Samuel, reacted to the Pence nod, telling Howey Politics Indiana, "I don't think this changes a single vote. If anything, it could add votes for Donald Trump. And the only real political impact this will have is that it could hurt the Governor's reelection effort."


  • Horse Race: Senate, CD forecasts
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
    and MARK SOUDER

        
    FORT WAYNE – U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman has been remarkably silent in his home base during the Senate campaign, in paid advertising and visibility.  He is obviously low on ad funds, and receiving little help.  He appears to have a strong home base.  Other than on WOWO – which is like a verbal war zone right now with ads for presidential candidates, Senate, Congress, the state legislature, and even county surveyor, because talk radio is a virtual Republican primary – U.S. Rep. Todd Young is also mostly missing in action in the media here. I believe that Stutzman could peak at 85% as a high, 65% as a floor, in this district.  He has never been challenged, so he has few negatives. If Stutzman drops closer to 65% in this area, which may be happening for a variety of reasons including his support being a mile wide and not very deep (especially in Allen County), Young’s statewide margin may top 10%.
  • Horse Race: Miller, Cox, Washburne on upset watch
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
        
    INDIANAPOLIS – When it comes to political forecasting, we prefer “instrument flight rules” but at the Indiana General Assembly level, there is almost no reliable polling available. So this is “visual flight rules” on these legislative primaries. Any intensity in this race seems to be with the number of new Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders voters that are flooding into the system. This tends to alter, potentially significantly so, conventional wisdom. So our forecasting is somewhat by gut instinct. Most informed and reliable sources believe that Senate President David Long and Senate Appropriations Chairman Luke Kenley will turn back their primary challengers. There is less certainty with Sen. Pete Miller. If there are upsets brewing, keep an eye on challenges to State Reps. Casey Cox and Thomas Washburne.
       
  • HPI Horse Race: Hoosier intensity with Trump, Clinton

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
        
    INDIANAPOLIS – Donald Trump entered Indiana with considerable momentum after his mid-Atlantic sweep. His Hoosier crowds have the intensity. The Knight endorsement has significance, particularly after The General said he “cherished” his Indiana legacy after ignoring it for more than a decade. Cruz’s basketball gaffe in Knightstown did not help his cause. His selection of Fiorina is likely to be a wash. Cruz is drawing smaller crowds and while enthusiastic, they don’t match the Trump intensity. His “deal” with John Kasich at this point is being viewed with considerable cynicism. At this writing, we believe Trump secures the nomination with a win here in Indiana. We think Hillary Clinton prevails. The news of Bernie Sanders reducing staff is an ominous sign for a dying campaign. So what we’re likely witnessing this week is a preview to what will be a sensational fall matchup.  

  • President Clinton brings back his policy wonk credentials
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - Former President Bill Clinton rallied about 400 Indianapolis Democrats to his wife’s cause in her sweltering Indiana headquarters Tuesday, cramming more policy in his hour-long than most of her GOP rivals. “As secretary of state, everything she did had significant Republican support,” Clinton said of nuclear legislation with Russia that drew the support of then U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar, and her work with former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay on foster child and adoption. “She’s the best single change maker. Please, please, please be there for her. Indiana is a poster child for all the success of America. Indiana symbolizes what we need.” On the student debt crisis, Clinton urged a restructuring much like a mortgage. He said Hillary Clinton backs a $23,000 tax credit based on such student debt, which he said averages a 9% interest rate.
  • WTHR/Howey Politics Poll: Gov. Pence becomes a polarizing figure
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
        
    NASHVILLE, Ind. – Gov. Mike Pence has become one of the most, if not the most, polarizing governor in modern times. The WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll shows that Pence will be in a dog fight with Democrat John Gregg, leading him in a general election head-to-head 49-45% with a mere 5% undecided. It is a virtual mirror image of the final 2012 results. The poll by Public Opinion Strategies (April 18-21, 500 likely voters, with two sets of over samples of Democrats (479) and Republicans (507), with a 4.3 +/-% error rate) was taken prior to Indiana Libertarian Party selecting Rex Bell as its nominee on Saturday. In recent elections, the Libertarian Rupert Boneham polled 3.9% in 2012 while Andy Horning had 2.1% in 2008. Bell will probably shave at least a couple of percentage points away from Pence. Mining down below the top lines, Pence is upside down with Hoosier voters. His approval stands at 44% with 41% disapproving, terrible numbers for an incumbent governor. With female voters, Pence trails Gregg 52-41%.
  • HPI Analysis: Gauging the Cruz/Kasich deal
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
        
    FRANKLIN –  In the width and breadth of Indiana political history, through Bobby Kennedy’s whistle stops across our state in 1968, through the Bulen era power struggle between President Ford and The Gipper in the spirit of ’76, after all the Budweisers and bourbon shots were gulleted by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton eight years ago, we’ve never seen anything quite like “the deal.” This devil’s pact between Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich to “steer resources” out of each other’s way in order to deny Donald Trump a first-ballot nomination in Cleveland wasn’t cut in Indiana, though it came over the weekend where Cruz stumped in Plainfield and Lebanon on Saturday when talks began, and was sealed after he rallied in Terre Haute and Evansville on Sunday. But it will play out in vivid fashion here over the next week. There was a flood of national calls coming into Howey Politics Indiana throughout the day with pretty much the same question: What will the impact be? Will Kasich supporters gravitate toward Cruz in enough numbers for him to win the primary? And my answer? I have no idea. No one does. We likely won’t know whether this was an 11th-hour desperation shot or a stroke of political genius until sometime late in the evening May 3. My initial gut reaction was this came a week or two too late.
  • HPI Interview: Stutzman gauges Senate race homestretch
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
        
    INDIANAPOLIS – U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman sat down with Howey Politics Indiana last Friday at Shapiro’s Deli to discuss his U.S. Senate campaign. Here is our conversation: HPI: Give us your overview of the campaign at this point? Stutzman: I think we’re in a great spot. In a campaign, you measure things differently. You try to figure out things and the money being dumped in against us, I think that’s a signal that even our opposition sees we’re in a good spot and this is a real race. Even though we’ve been behind in the money game from the very beginning, we’re competitive if not in the lead. I’m really encouraged the way things are going, but the next week is really critical for us. HPI: We’ve got polling data coming out that there is a large pool of undecided voters. How are you going to approach them? Stutzman: It seems like the presidential race sucks up a lot of oxygen. We’ve seen that in our polling. There is a large number of undecideds and it’s been that way for a long time. We see these late breakers for awhile, and we’re completely ready for a full-out campaign next week that we have prepared. We think we know where they are at in the state, we know our level of messaging is really critical at this point and the fact that I’m assertive in fighting the establishment in Washington is really resonating with Indiana voters.
  • WTHR/Howey Politics INSen Poll: Young leads Stutzman 43-31%
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
        
    NASHVILLE, Ind. – Todd Young’s seismic money advantage with his campaign and super PAC allies appears to be pushing the Republican U.S. Senate race out of reach of Marlin Stutzman. In the WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll, Young has forged a 43-31% lead over Stutzman. If there is a silver lining for Rep. Stutzman, it is that 26% are undecided. In a Howey Politics Indiana interview on Friday, Stutzman said he believes he can pull out a victory by attracting those voters. However, the GOP Senate primary has taken a backseat to the presidential race. The Indianapolis Business Journal reported over the weekend that pro-Cruz super PACs have dumped more than $3 million into Indiana. Trump is also advertising extensively in the state. Those campaigns have begun eclipsing the Senate race advertising. The potential general election matchups may reveal why Young has an advantage in the primary. Rep. Young leads Democrat Baron Hill 48-30%, compared to Stutzman’s 39-36% lead over the former congressman from Seymour.
        
  • Unprecedented Cruz/Kasich deal to play out in Indiana

    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - What could be an epic and potentially unprecedented political deal designed to thwart a Donald Trump presidential nomination will play out in vivid and perhaps frenzied fashion across Indiana over the next eight days. Late Sunday night, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz divided up the rest of the primary calendar in an attempt to tag team Trump. Kasich will pull out of Indiana, scrapping town halls and appearances in Noblesville and Evansville, allowing Cruz to compete here alone. Cruz, who will make stops in Borden, Columbus, Greenwood and Franklin today, is seeking to overcome a Real Clear Politics composite polling deficit with Trump in Indiana at 6.3%. On Friday, the WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll showed Cruz trailing Trump 37-31% with Kasich at 22%. Cruz and Trump will now try to mop up as much of the Kasich support as they can.

  • WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll: Leads for Trump, Clinton
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton hold tenuous leads in the WTHR/HoweyPolitics Indiana Poll released this morning. Trump has a  37-31% lead over Sen. Ted Cruz in the Indiana Republican primary, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich coming in at 22%. On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders 48-45%. A Fox News Poll also released on Friday had similar numbers, with Trump leading Cruz 41-33 and Clinton over Sanders 46-42%. The poll was conducted by pollster Gene Ulm of Public Opinion Strategies from April 18-21, with a 500 base sample and both Democratic and Republican over samples. The margin of error in the Republican race was 4.3%, while on the Democratc side, it is 4.47%. “Turnout will be a factor,” Ulm said. Of Trump, Ulm said “His new supporters are a huge factor. The larger it is, the better he will do.”
  • Pence, Cruz make election pitch to Indiana Republicans
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - Gov. Mike Pence reset the tone of his coming reelection campaign with Democrat John Gregg Thursday night at the Indiana Republican Spring Dinner vowing, “We are 200 days away from a great Republican victory. I feel very confident. The truth is they want to go in reverse. They want higher taxes, more regulations, more debt. It’s a place we like to call Illinois. We’re not going to let them go there again.”  Prior to the speech, Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb reminded Republicans that Democrats left the state in $800 million debt, owing local governments and schools money, raiding the Teacher Retirement Fund and at the BMV, “It took seven hours, not seven minutes.”

  • HPI Analysis: Donald Trump brings 'the show' to Indiana
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY
        
    INDIANAPOLIS – Hoosier voters, fearful and angry about an uncertain future, were treated to a stream of consciousness from billionaire Republican presidential frontrunner Donald J. Trump Wednesday afternoon at the Indiana State Fairgrounds. It kicked off what could be a volatile and historic pre-primary ramp up with the eyes of the nation on the outcome. A big Trump win on May 3 will put enormous pressure on the Indiana Republican establishment, which selected a slate of delegates that appear to be supporting U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich earlier this month. As he had in recent weeks, Trump complained about a “crooked” and “rigged” system, though he didn’t specifically point to allies of Gov. Mike Pence, who appear to be engineering an unfriendly delegate slate.
  • Cruz mixes with the common voter at Shapiro's, picks up his tab
    By BRIAN A. HOWEY

    INDIANAPOLIS - As Ted Cruz approached the cashier at Shapiro’s Deli, he pulled out a Jackson - a not-so-trendy $20 bill. “You know I’m one who believes no one should get a free lunch,” Cruz said. With that, the Republican Texas senator took possession of a legendary Shapiro’s pastrami. To the several hundred Hoosiers gathered to witness the presidential campaign on their home turf, Cruz’s foray to the deli was a rare, rare event. While Iowans and Granite Staters often get to rub shoulders and drink beers with presidential candidates in the nascent stages of a cycle, by the time they roll into Indiana, they are in a different mode. There are motorcades, Secret Service agents, big rallies where the candidates come in from behind the stage. After a speech, they might occasionally do a grip line.

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  • Claybourn gives up RNC delegate seat due to Trump
    “Trump opposes free trade, he’s skeptical of free speech and free association, he peddles in fear and mean-spirited insults and he lacks a mature temperament. I cannot in good conscience attend a convention and support him.” - Joshua Claybourn, Evansville City Council attorney and a Republican National Convention delegate who will turn his seat over to an alternate after Donald Trump became the GOP’s presumptive nominee.
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HPI Video Feed
Gregg begins INGov TV ad campaign
Democrat John Gregg begins his TV ad campaign and plans to stay on the air through November.

Sanders Indiana victory speech in Louisville
Bernie Sanders declares victory in the Indiana primary from Louisville.

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